Confidence in the short-term growth of the euro is gradually declining
The euro continues to rise against the U.S. dollar, which was formed in the middle of this month. It looks like investors are planning to end the month on a positive note, getting close to the large monthly resistance levels.
Data on lending in the eurozone and confidence in France supported the euro in the first half of the day, but a number of international economic agencies predict a slowdown in the euro in the short term.
For many technical indicators, risky assets are in the overbought zone, and a good downward correction has not been observed for a long time. Also, the EUR/USD pair got close to fairly large levels of resistance, from which a strong bearish trend was formed in the middle of summer of this year. This is another signal to the fact that there is no need to hurry with the purchase from the current levels.
As I noted above, bank lending in the euro area continued to grow in July this year.
According to the report of the European Central Bank, lending to non-financial companies increased by 4.1% compared to the same period last year. Good indicators were also noted in household lending, which in July 2018 increased by 3.0%, as in the previous month.
As for the M3 money supply indicator, it turned out to be slightly worse than forecasts. According to the data, the annual growth of M3 monetary aggregate slowed to 4.0% from 4.5% in June. Economists had expected the indicator to grow by 4.3 percent.
Good data on consumer morale in France maintained confidence in further economic growth. According to the report of the statistics agency, the consumer confidence index in France in August this year remained at 97 points against 97 in July. Economists had also forecast the index to be 97 points.
An important report on consumer confidence in the US will be published on Tuesday in the afternoon, which can significantly affect the US dollar. It is expected that the indicator of consumer confidence in the US will decrease to 126.6 points in August against 127.4 points in July this year.
As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, the prospects for the movement of the euro remained unchanged. The failure of breaking the resistance of 1.1700 for today could lead to the decline of the European currency against the background of profit taking and return to the area of the lows of 1.1625 and 1.1590.