Control zones of the EUR / USD as of August 23, 2018
The upward movement of the current week is a medium-term impulse, therefore the main support will be made by the NCP 1/2 1.1531-1.1522. While the pair is trading above this zone, purchases remain a priority.
The most favorable prices for purchase, in conditions of medium-term bullish momentum, are within the limits of the NCP 1/2 1.1531-1.1522, formed from the maximum of the current week. When constructing a plan, it is necessary to take into account the closeness of the monthly short-term fault to a weekly extremum, which slightly reduces the amount of potential profit. The upward movement will remain the main one as long as the pair trades above the NCP 1/2, so purchases are profitable, since the probability of updating the weekly maximum is 70%.
The variant with the continuation of growth without a test NCP 1/2 is better not to be considered since the risk-to-profit ratio of this model will be less than 1 to 3. At the distance, such transactions do not give the necessary advantage.
To cancel the upward momentum and the formation of a medium-term correctional model, closing of today’s American session below the level of 1.1522 is required. This will allow us to look for favorable prices for the sale of the instrument tomorrow. The probability of forming this model is 30%, so work on it will be auxiliary to the main ascending one. The level of 1.1611 is significant, as above it there was a large number of limit orders for sale in early August, and yesterday’s level test confirmed their availability, not at this time.
The daily short-term fault is the daytime control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
The weekly short-term fault is the weekly control zone. The zone formed by important futures market marks, which change several times a year.
The monthly short-term fault is the monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.