EUR/USD. November 8th. Results of the day. Nobody expects surprises from the Fed
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 116 p-84 p-71 p-47 p-105 p.
The average amplitude for the last 5 days: 85 p (75 p).
Throughout the entire trading day, traders did not receive any important macroeconomic news. Thus, the reduction of volatility to almost zero and the absence of trend movement are absolutely logical. Market participants are expecting Mario Draghi’s speech, which is scheduled for 18-20. It is unlikely that Draghi will please the markets with fundamentally new information, however, his speech should not be missed. The announcement of the results of the Fed meeting is of greater importance for the market . The key rate is likely to remain at the same level, so the Fed’s accompanying statement, which may indicate hints at a rate hike in December, will be more interesting. We also note that on the eve of the announcement of the results, market activity is very low. And this is also quite rare, usually traders begin to open positions “on expectations”. We are not seeing this now. In general, we can assume that even if there are hints of a rate hike, there will be no particularly strong market reaction. Thus, the technique now has and will be of greater importance. And from a technical point of view, the pair failed to overcome the critical Kijun-sen line, so it has some chances of resuming the upward movement. If it is not prevented by two fundamental events planned for today. We also note that the upward movement is now extremely weak and with fairly frequent corrections. Therefore, it is best to trade on the increase only in the short term.
The EUR/USD pair continues its corrective movement. A reversal of the MACD indicator upwards will indicate the end of a correction, but also serve as a signal for opening new long positions with targets at resistance levels of 1,1461 and 1,1519.
Sell orders will become relevant not earlier than fixing the price below the critical line. Small lots with a target of 1.1349. Perhaps this consolidation will happen today, if Draghi upset traders or the Fed pleases them.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustration:
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.