EUR / USD. October 3. The trading system “Regression channels”. Euro has all the chances to work out the moving
The senior channel of linear regression: direction – sideways.
The younger linear regression channel: direction – up.
Moving average (20; smoothed) – down.
The EUR / USD currency pair began the long-awaited correction at the Asian trading session on Wednesday, October 3. Yesterday’s speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, by and large, was ignored by traders. During his speech in Boston, Powell reiterated that the rates will gradually increase, the unemployment rate in the next two years will remain low with stable inflation. The head of the Fed did not say anything new, so we didn’t see any special market reaction. Another Powell’s speech will take place this evening, however, it is unlikely that there will be any fundamentally new information. Also during the day in Europe, indices of business activity in the sectors of production and services Markit and retail sales will be published. The latter figure may have an impact on the course of trading, as it is quite important. Experts predict that retail sales growth in August will be 1.7% y / y. Any value above the forecast can support the euro currency, however, while it is only a correction to the moving average line. In the United States today, Markit and ISM business indices and the ADP report on changes in the number of employees in the private sector will also be published. Employment data may also affect the movement of the pair, but this would require an unexpected report value.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1,1536
S2 – 1,1475
S3 – 1.1414
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.1597
R2 – 1.1658
R3 – 1.1719
The EUR / USD currency pair has begun to adjust. Thus, to open new sell-positions with the target of 1.1536, you should wait until the correction completes, which can be determined by the price rebound from the moving or by turning the Heikin-Ashi indicator down.
Long positions can be opened after traders overcome the moving average line. The goal, in this case, will be the level of Murray “8/8” – 1.1719.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanations for illustrations:
The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.
The junior linear regression channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement.
CCI – blue line in the indicator window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Levels of Murray – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.