EUR / USD. October 31. The trading system. “Regression Channels”. EU inflation accelerated slightl
The senior linear regression channel: direction – sideways.
The younger linear regression channel: direction – down.
Moving average (20; smoothed) – down.
The currency pair EUR / USD on Wednesday, October 31, continues the downward movement and overcame the Murray level of “2/8” – 1.1353. Today, the preliminary value of the consumer price index in the eurozone for October has been published. As predicted, inflation accelerated slightly, from 2.1% to 2.2% y / y. However, this is only a preliminary, not final value. It should be noted that no special reaction of the market to this event followed, which, in principle, is absolutely logical. The deviation from the forecast is minimal. The unemployment rate in September was 8.1%, which is fully consistent with the previous value and forecast. A little later in the United States, a report on the change in the number of workers in the private sector from ADP will be published. Forecasts indicate a decrease in this number compared with the previous month. However, the key will be the deviation of the real value from the forecast. If the actual value is higher, then the US dollar will receive additional support, which, in principle, does not need much. The value below the forecast can force traders to fix a small proportion of shorts, however, this is likely to support the euro only in a very short term. There are no technical grounds for assuming the beginning of an upward correction.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1,1292
S2 – 1.1230
S3 – 1.1169
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.1353
R2 – 1.1414
R3 – 1.1475
The EUR / USD currency pair continues to move down. Thus, it is now recommended to continue to trade for a fall in order to the level of 1.1292. A reversal of the Heikin Ashi indicator to the top will indicate a round of upward correction.
Long positions are not relevant now, as all indicators are pointing down. It will be possible to consider long positions not earlier fixing the price above the moving average line with the first target of 1.1475.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanations for illustrations:
The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.
The junior linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.
CCI – blue line in the indicator window.
The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.
Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.