EUR / USD: the euro has a chance for rehabilitation
The EUR/USD bears could not press the support level 1.1610 last week and open their way to the area of the 15th figure. Although many factors contributed to such a breakthrough such as Mario Draghi’s speech that disappointed traders, the US economic growth showed a positive trend, and consumer spending in the second quarter grew by just four percent. In addition, the PCE Core index (Personal Consumption Expenditures, Excluding Food & Energy), the most important indicator according to Fed, grew by two percent which confirmed the experts’ forecasts.
But the euro-dollar pair was cold to such positive numbers. Moreover, the price rebounded from local lows and completed the trading week in the middle of the 16th figure. The strong support level has remained steady, and now the European currency has a chance for a corrective pullback.
But first of all, let’s see why the bulls failed to strengthen their influence based on such optimistic data? After all, the quarterly growth of the US economy gained the maximum for the past four years, despite the fact that it did not reach the forecasted values of just 0.1%. Initially, there were rumors on the market that the White House depends on a stronger dynamics of GDP growth – 4.8% -4.9%. Because of this circumstance, Trump allegedly will exert further pressure on the Fed regarding the slowdown in rates tightening monetary policy, but these are only rumors. During his speech on Friday, the US president announced a steady economic growth and believed that such strong numbers are not “a one-shot”.
However, most experts disagree with this statement. In their opinion, the increasing trade tension will not be able to keep the key figure within the framework of four, but also within the framework of three percent. The structure of the published data suggests that GDP grew due to trade and a reduction in the foreign trade deficit. Thus, exports grew by more than 9%, while imports showed a minimum of 0.5%. According to some analysts, the escalation of the trade war with China could slow the growth of the US economy and the GDP figure in the third quarter will be (at least) below four percent. In other words, the overwhelming majority of experts calmly reacted to the Friday release, because, in their opinion, the published figures do not yet indicate an established trend. Also, evaluating the development of recent events, the US economy will not be able to withstand a given rate. This explains the low-key reaction of the foreign exchange market.
Such restraint has survived today. Moreover, Donald Trump put pressure again on the American currency with his speech. This time, he stated that he was ready to implement the shut down procedure (in other words, to suspend the work of the government), if the Democratic deputies refuse to vote for a package of migration laws. This bill is the subject of heated discussions, as it includes the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico and the abolition of the migration lottery. The first and the second idea are actively criticized not only by members of the Democratic Party, but also by some Trump party members. Therefore, the US president’s ultimatum should not be ignored, given the fact that Democrats are unlikely to succumb to such threats. Evaluating the behavior of the dollar on Monday, most market participants believe that Trump’s statement is only a political bluff. However, in any case, this factor does not make greenback attractive, especially after Trump’s criticism of the Fed in the light of the forthcoming meeting of the American regulator.
Thus, while the dollar is “occupied” with internal political problems, the European currency has a chance to show character and demonstrate corrective growth. Everything depends on the dynamics of key indicators of the European economy which will be published tomorrow.
So, we will determine tomorrow the preliminary data on inflation growth in the euro area, GDP and unemployment. Also we will learn the indicator of the German labor market. The overall forecast for these indicators are quite good, but without any hint of any significant breakthrough.
For example, the consumer price index should remain at a high level – 2%. Core inflation may return to 1% after the June revision to 0.9%. Unemployment traditionally demonstrates positive dynamics (in June it is likely to drop to 8.3%), but GDP in quarterly terms should remain at the same level (0.4%), and will slow down to 2.2% year-on-year (after growth of 2.5%). The German labor market also should not disappoint traders since forecasts shows that unemployment will remain at a record low level of 5.2%, and the number of unemployed will be reduced by 10 thousand.
In the context of the last ECB meeting, traders are primarily interested in the dynamics of European inflation. If inflation indicators come out at least on the forecast level, the EUR/USD pair will be able to continue corrective growth. The first target of the northern movement is the 1.1755 mark, which corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. If the pair secures above this level, then it will open the way to a larger growth – up to the level of 1.1960 (the upper limit of Kumo on D1).