Forecast for EUR / USD as of September 17, 2018
EUR / USD
Friday’s cautious growth, which we expected, turned out to be extremely cautious, having passed into the moderate fall of the euro. News agencies focused on the news about the possible introduction by President Trump of increased tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion. Retail sales in the United States failed, the August increase was only 0.1% against the forecast of 0.4%, although the base sales index increased by a noticeable 0.3% (0.5% forecast). Industrial production, on the contrary, pleased investors by an increase of 0.4% against the forecast of 0.3%. The capacity utilization increased from 77.9% to 78.1%. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta raised its forecast for GDP for the third quarter to 4.4%. Investors preferred to close the hard-won positions since the beginning of the week.
Nevertheless, the technical turnaround has not yet occurred. To do this, the price should be fixed below the balance line on the daily timeframe. At four o’clock, this fixing has already taken place. Also on H4 signal line of the Marlin oscillator in the territory of negative numbers, in the zone of decline of the trend. On the daily scale, the corresponding condition has not yet been formed.
A change in the trend will occur if the price is fixed under the Kruzenshtern trend line on the daily timeframe. Now, we are also cautiously waiting for the price reduction to support the price channel line of 1.1513. The line of Kruzenshtern on daily is located approximately at around 1.1453.