Forecast for USD / JPY as of August 20, 2018
USD / JPY
The Japanese yen strongly opposes external pressure from the stock market and a new factor of the risk of the Fed’s shrinking balance felt by peripheral markets. The price is kept in the accumulation range of June positions, this range is marked by a gray rectangle.
On the day and four-hour time frames, the situation is clearly decreasing. Both there and there the price is below the Krusenstern indicator lines and the balance line, on both graphs the signal line of the Marlin oscillator in the negative territory, there are no convergences with the price. With the subsequent jerk of the price downwards, support of the trend line near 109.86 can be achieved, breaking this line will open the way to downstream support at 108.98.
Nevertheless, such a scenario may not be realized. If the price is fixed above the indicator lines at H4 (above 110.68), the main scenario of price growth with a balanced line attack on the daily chart (111.02) and further with an attempt to exit the trend line at 111.55 can earn.
So, the situation as a whole is uncertain, it remains to wait for its development.