Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for October 18, 2018
EUR/AUD has been quite impulsive, making bearish price swings. This dynamic is currently leading the price towards support area between 1.5900 and 1.6050. The eurozone has already provided a lot of downbeat economic reports recently that allowed AUD to gain momentum over EUR. As a result, this might continue to push the price much lower in the coming days.
EUR has been battered by the outcome of the EU Summit and recently published economic reports. Today German WPI report was published with an increase to 0.4% as expected from the previous value of 0.5%. Besides, the second day of the EU Summit may also follow the dovish path of the first day, leading the price further downward.
On the other hand, despite certain mixed economic results AUD gained momentum most of the economic reports published recently have met expectations. Today Australia’s Employment Change report was published with a decrease to 5.6k from the previous figure of 44.6k which was expected to be at 15.2k and Unemployment Rate had a positive outcome with a decrease to 5.0% which was expected to be unchanged at 5.3%. Moreover, NAB Quarterly Business Confidence report was published with a decrease to 3 from the previous figure of 7.
Meanwhile, AUD is expected to gain further momentum over EUR in the coming days until the eurozone comes up with solid macroeconomic reports to counter strongly AUD strength. Otherwise, the bearish momentum is expected to continue further.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price moved lower after rejecting off the 1.6350 area with a daily close after building up Bearish Divergence. The price is currently residing below the dynamic level of 20 EMA as well which also indicates further bearish pressures. As the price remains below 1.6350 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue with a target towards 1.5900-1.6050 area from where any bullish intervention may lead to continuation of the bullish trend. On the other hand, in the future, if the price manages to break below 1.5900 with a daily close, further bearish momentum may be observed in this pair.
SUPPORT: 1.5900, 1.6050
RESISTANCE: 1.6350, 1.6500
MOMENTUM: IMPULSIVE and VOLATILE