Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for July 9, 2018
EUR/USD has been quite impulsive with the recent bullish gains. As a result, the price is holding above 1.1750 area with a daily close today. As the US posted nonfarm payrolls with a decrease in non-farm employment and also higher unemployment rate, this shattered the recent bearish expectation of the market.
On Friday, US Average Hourly Earnings report was published with a decrease to 0.2% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.3%, non-farm employment change was published with better-than-expected growth to 213k which was expected to be at 195k but the indicator decreased from the previous figure of 244k, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.0%, confouding the forecast for the flat reading of 3.8%. This week, the economic calendar does not contain macroeconomic reports or events in the US. Thus, no fundamentals could inject gains on the USD side, so the greenback is expected to remain weak further.
On the EUR side, today ECB President Draghi is going to speak about the the key interest rate and further agenda for monetary policy. His speech is expected to be neutral, making no immediate impact. Amid USD weakness, EUR is likely to gain ground. Moreover, today the eurozone’s Sentix Investor Confidence report is going to be published which is expected to show a slight decrease to 9.0 from the previous figure of 9.3.
As for the current scenario, EUR is expected to advance further against USD this week. On the other hand, USD is going to struggle further until the US comes up with any upbeat macroeconomic report to counter the impulsive EUR sentiment in the market.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently correcting itself above 1.1700-50 area which is currently expected to retest with certain bearish pressure before showing impulsive bullish momentum in the process with a target towards 1.1900 area. A daily close above 1.1700-50 area is needed to continue the bullish bias being formed currently.
NEAR TERM SUPPORT: 1.1700-50
NEAR TERM RESISTANCE: 1.1900
CURRENT FORMATION: CORRECTIVE