Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for September 3, 2018
EUR/USD has been quite impulsive amid the bearish momentum recently which led the price to reside below 1.1650 area with a daily close recently. Ahead of the macroeconomic reports on the USD side this week, certain volatility and corrections may be observed in the market throughout the week.
Because of the observance of Labor Day in the US, no impactful news or event on the USD side is due today. Tomorrow US ISM Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 57.6 from the previous figure of 58.1. Though the expectation is quite soft, a better reading is sure to make changes. On Friday, US Average Hourly Earnings report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.3%, Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to increase to 191k from the previous figure of 157k and Unemployment Rate is also expected to be unchanged at 3.9%.
On the other hand, today Spanish Manufacturing PMI report was published with an increase to 53.0 from the previous figure of 52.9 which was expected to decrease to 52.5, Italian Manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.1 from the previous figure of 51.5 which was expected to be at 51.2, German Manufacturing PMI decrease to 55.9 which was expected to be unchanged at 56.1, and Final Manufacturing PMI report was published unchanged as expected at 54.6.
Meanhwile, despite the lack of economic reports with mixed figures, EUR failed to gain certain momentum over USD but managed to stop the impulsive bearish momentum for a while. As the US Economic reports publish this week, certain volatility and gain on the USD side is expected if USD manages to produce better results throughout the week to favor the upcoming gains.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below the trend line resistance at 1.1650 while also residing above the dynamic support of 20 EMA. As for the previous impulsive bearish pressure and the trend continuation structure, the price is expected to push lower towards 1.15 and later towards 1.13 area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.1750 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.
SUPPORT: 1.1500, 1.1300
RESISTANCE: 1.1650, 1.1750