Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for July 6, 2018
NZD/USD has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently which lead the price to retest the support area of 0.68-0.69 area in the process. Ahead of the upcoming high impact USD economic reports to be published today, the pair is expected to be quite volatile in the process.
NZD has been quite worse with the performance of recently published economic reports including NZIER Business Confidence showing greater deficit to -20 from the previous figure of -11 and ANZ Commodity Price also decreasing to -1.0% from the previous value of 1.5%. As of the recent worse reports, market sentiment diversified their momentum towards USD ahead of the high impact USD reports this week.
On the USD side, having a certain optimistic approach from the FOMC Meeting despite the recent Trade War tensions, USD is expected to be quite positive. Today, a USD Average Hourly Earnings report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.3%, Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to decrease to 195k from the previous figure of 223k and Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.8%. Moreover, USD Trade Balance report is also going to be published today which is expected to increase to -43.6B from the previous deficit of -46.2B and Natural Gas Storage report is expected to increase to 76B from the previous figure of 66B.
As of the current scenario, USD is expected to have an upper hand despite the mixed expectations for the upcoming high impact economic reports as the optimistic approach FED and increase in Job ratio is expected to lead to further USD gains in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical view. As of the recent Bullish Regular Divergence in place, the price has pushed higher this week and currently residing at the edge of 0.68-69 resistance area from where it is expected to push lower towards 0.6550 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.70 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.