Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for September 7, 2018
NZD/USD has been impulsive amid the bearish momentum recently which lead the price to reside at the edge of 0.6550 support area currently. USD has been the dominant currency in the pair while NZD has been struggling in light of the soft economic data earlier, which is expected to change for good in the coming days.
This week NZD Overseas Trade Index report was published with an increase to 0.6% from the previous value of -2.0% which unfortunately did not meet the forecasted value of 1.1% and ANZ Commodity Prices report showed an increase to -1.1% from the previous value of -3.3%. Today RBNZ Governor Orr spoke about the long-term planning for the development rather than any short-term temporary solutions and he also outlined the current priorities for the change which includes regulated financial institutions and movement of the money in the economy.
On the USD side, today’s economic reports are going to provide definite insight for the upcoming momentum of the currency. Today USD Average Hourly Earnings report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3%, Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to increase to 191k from the previous figure of 157k and Unemployment Rate is expected to decrease to 3.8% from the previous value of 3.9%.
Meanhwile, NZD has been performing quite well amid the recent economic reports whereas USD is forecasted to have mixed outcome of the high impact economic reports to be published. Though certain volatility is expected in the pair throughout the process, definite momentum on NZD side is expected to last for a certain period in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite volatile and corrective while rejecting the bulls with a daily close below the dynamic level of 20 EMA recently. The price has formed Bullish Divergence for a certain period which is expected to push the price higher towards 0.6720 area before pushing further lower with the trend in the coming days. As the price remains below 0.6850 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.
SUPPORT: 0.6550, 0.6500, 0.6400
RESISTANCE: 0.6720, 0.6850