Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for July 20, 2018
USD/CAD has been quite impulsive amid bullish pressure under the corrective upward momentum. The price is expected to climb higher towards 1.34 before showing any further bearish pressure in the pair.
Today, a series of macroconomic reports are due in Canada. Exepectations are going to inject extra volatility in the market. Today, Canada’s CPI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.1%, Core Retail Sales report is expected to increase to 0.6% from the previous value of -0.1%, Common CPI, Trimmed CPI and Median CPI was previously at 1.9% which might see a certain rise today, and Retail Sales report is expected to increase to 1.0% from the previous negative value of -1.2%.
On the other hand, today the economic calendar does not contain economic data or events from the US which might impact the market semtiment on USD. However, some the US presented upbeat data recently. Unemployment Claims to decreased by 207k from the previous figure of 215k and Philly FED Manufacturing Index rose to 25.7 from the previous figure of 19.9. Ahead of the flash GDP report to be published next week, USD could not sustain the momentum.
At present, the market has positive expectations for Canada’s macroeconomic data. This may lead to certain gain on the CAD side. Nevertheless, USD still has the upper hand over CAD ahead of the impactful news today. Though CAD could put pressure on USD birefly, USD is expected to regain its momentum quickly in the coming days, leading the price towards 1.34 resistance area.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite bearish after yesterday’s impulsive bullish momentum, which might lead to certain bearish pressure towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA before pushing higher towards 1.34 area in the future. Though the bullish trend is still in play, but 1.34 was quite successful earlier to push the price lower which might do it again in the coming days as the price rejects off the 1.34 area with a daily close and bearish pressure. As the price remains above 1.3050 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further in this pair.