Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for November 1, 2018
USD/CHF has been quite impressive with recent bullish gains. As a result, the price is holding above 1.00 area but currently moving lower with impulsive momentum. USD has been holding the upper hand over CHF. USD is picking up steam ahead of NFP. However, today’s CHF gains indicates volatility and counter trend momentum for the coming days.
CHF has been quite positive amid the economic reports published today. The upbeat data is assumed as the main counter-momentum injector currently. Today Switzerland’s SECO Consumer Climate report was published with an increase to -6 from the previous figure of -7 which was expected to decrease to -8, CPI increased to 0.2% as expected from the previous value of 0.1%, and Manufacturing PMI made a slight decrease to 57.4 from the previous figure of 59.7 which was expected to be at 58.6. Moreover, tomorrow Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -0.2% from the previous value of 0.4%.
On the USD side, ahead of NFP tomorrow, USD has been quite mixed with the recently published economic reports. Today US ISM Manufacturing PMI report was published with a decrease to 57.7 from the previous figure of 59.8 which was expected to be at 59.0. Tomorrow, US Average Hourly Earnings report is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.3%, Non-Farm Employment Change to increase to 193k from the previous figure of 134k, and Unemployment Rate could remain unchanged at 3.7%.
Meanhwile, CHF gains are still quite strong. Better-than-expected Retail Sales result may lead to further bearish gains over USD whereas USD confused the market sentiment due to mixed forecasts of reports. Unclear market sentiment leads to certain gains on the CHF side today which can only be recovered if US economic employment reports reveal strong readings.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite impulsive which engulfed the recent bullish daily candle. There are certain chances of a counter-move to Bearish Divergence, which is forming at the resistance area. Nevertheless, to get strong confirmation of further bearish pressure the price should close below 0.9980 area with a daily close. As the price remains above 0.9980 area with a daily close, there are still chances of bullish pressure to continue further.
SUPPORT: 0.9980, 0.9850
RESISTANCE: 1.0050, 1.0200
MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE and IMPULSIVE