Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for July 16, 2018
USD/JPY has been quite volatile and bearish in nature recently. The prive is expected to drop lower towards 111.00 support area in the coming days. Despite upbeat economic data today, JPY managed to sustain the bearish momentum it formed earlier.
Due to the observance of Marine Day, today Japan did not present any economic report. On Thursday, Japan’s Trade Balance report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.15T from the previous figure of -0.30T and on Friday National Core CPI report is going to be published which is also expected to increase to 0.8% from the previous value of 0.7%.
On the USD side, today US Core Retail Sales report was published with a decrease to 0.4% as expected from the previous value of 1.4%, Retail Sales were slightly better than expected at 0.5%, decreasing from the previous value of 1.3% which was expected to be at 0.4% as well and Empire State Manufacturing Index report was also published with a better than expected figure of 22.6, decreasing from the previous figure of 25.0 which was expected to be at 20.3.
At present, JPY is quite optimistic ahead of the upcoming economic reports. It is expected to draw attention of the bears in the pair, leading to certain gains over USD. Traders took little notice of upbeat retail sales report from the US, so USD is trading slightly lower that may lead to further weakness in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently struggling at the edge of Channel Resistance above 112.00 area. As for the current formation, the price is expected to push lower as the current price is quite away from the mean of 20 EMA which may result to certain bearish pressure in the pair before pushing much higher in the future. As the price remains above 110.50 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue in this pair.