GBP / USD. 18 July. Trading system “Regression channels”. All attention to inflation in the UK
Senior channel of linear regression: direction – down.
The younger channel of linear regression: the direction is sideways.
Moving average (20, smoothed) – down.
The advantage in the GBP / USD pair on Tuesday, July 17, was entirely on the side of the US currency. Chairman of the Fed Jerome Powell pleased traders with a strong position and said that the key rate will continue to grow, and the US economic growth has excellent prospects. In turn, Mark Carney expressed concern about the uncertainty in the Brexit scenario, and is also concerned about its consequences for the economy. Thus, every speech was supported by the US dollar. Today, July 18, should pay attention to the publication of inflation in Britain. According to experts’ forecasts, the indicator may grow up to 2.6%, however, after yesterday’s speech by Karni, market participants can easily ignore this publication. Even further acceleration of inflation does not give grounds to assume tightening of the monetary policy of the Bank of England in the near future. All attention is now focused on the political crisis in the Parliament, the actions of Theresa May and Brexit. After dinner, Jerome Powell’s second speech will take place, which, like yesterday, may trigger new purchases of the US dollar, despite the Fed’s concerns about the possible consequences of the trade war.
Nearest support levels:
S1 = 1.3062
S2 – 1,3000
S3 – 1.2939
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 = 1.3123
R2 = 1.3184
R3 = 1.3245
For GBP / USD, the price continues strong downward movement with no signs of a correction beginning. The goals for shorts now are the levels of 1.3062 and 1.3000. A strong overbought CCI warns of a possible correction, but has not yet been confirmed by a signal from Heikin Ashi.
The purchase orders will become relevant only after the traders have overcome the moving average line with a target of 1.3306. However, this is unlikely to happen today, since at the moment the price is far enough from the moving-house.
In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanations for illustrations:
The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.
The junior channel is linear-violet lines of unidirectional motion.
CCI – the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.
Moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.
Levels of Murray – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.