GBP / USD. August 1. The trading system “Regression channels”. The fundamental background for the pound remains negative
Senior channel of linear regression: direction – down.
The younger channel of linear regression: direction – down.
Moving average (20; flattened) – sideways.
The currency pair GBP / USD on July 31 could not develop the upward movement and was fixed back below the moving average line. If you look at the technical picture as a whole, you can clearly see that each next maximum is lower than the previous one. And this says only about one thing, a downward trend in the pair remains. Today, the results of the Fed meeting will be announced, and tomorrow, the results of the meeting of the Bank of England. There are certain chances for strengthening the British currency. For example, if today, the rhetoric of representatives of the Fed is “soft” (although there are no prerequisites for this), and tomorrow, the Bank of England will raise the key rate (the probability of which is quite high). However, even if one or both of these conditions are met, the pound will receive support only in the short term. The problems of Britain, political and economic, will not disappear anywhere. Questions on Brexit are still much more than answers. The number of satisfied politicians Theresa May falls every day, like the ratings of the prime minister. Thus, from our point of view, even tightening monetary policy will not save the pound from further decline. If the Bank of England does not take such drastic measures, it can even more disappoint traders, and the pound sterling may go into a new free fall.
Nearest support levels:
S1 = 1.3062
S2 – 1,3000
S3 – 1.2939
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 = 1.3123
R2 = 1.3184
R3 = 1.3245
The currency pair GBP / USD was fixed below the removals. Thus, on August 1, it is recommended to open or support already open shorts with a target of 1.3062. In the evening, there may be more movement or a sharp turn. Therefore, before the meeting of the Fed, it is recommended to move the Stop Loss level to a break-even point or be ready to close shorts.
The buy-positions will become again relevant only after the reverse fixing of the bulls above the removals. In this case, the pair will get another chance to form an uptrend with the first target of 1.3184.
In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanations for illustrations:
The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.
The junior channel is linear-violet lines of unidirectional motion.
CCI – the blue line in the regression window of the indicator.
Moving average (20; smoothed) – the blue line on the price chart.
Levels of Murray – multi-colored horizontal stripes.
Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.