Global macro overview for 02/10/2018
The PMI index for the construction sector in the UK fell to 52.1 points against the forecasts for maintaining the value from the previous period (52.9 points). This sector is of secondary importance to the British economy, therefore this information does not have a visible impact on the market yet.
On a yearly basis, the PPI inflation in the Eurozone rose to 4.2% against a drop forecast from 4.0% up to 3.8%. On the monthly basis, the PPI inflation amounted to 0.3 (a fall forecast from 0.4% to 0.2%). Good information does not stop the current fall in EUR / USD (-0.6%), approaching 1.1510.
Let’s now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. EUR / USD is testing the bottom band of consolidation at 1.1510, as EUR is under pressure through Italian budget problems. Breaking us open before the repetition of the August scenario after the “Turkish crisis” – a repetition as to the scale, but not the dynamics of the movement. The threat of an avalanche of stop-loss is lower, because in recent days the market has been massively reducing long positions, so investors’ involvement is now lighter. Nevertheless, breaking the support will give reason to intensify the sale and the road to the exit to 1,1440 will open (then high of August 13). To save EUR (and to put embarrassment to sellers), it is necessary to go over 1,1560 at the end of the day. However, the subject of Italy remains in the foreground and will weigh on EUR.