Global macro overview for 02/11/2018
The US labor market report (NFP) pointed to an increase in employment in October by 250,000, much more than the expected 200,000. September data has been revised down to 118,000 (from 134,000 previously) and both figures can be explained by disturbances caused by hurricanes. Traditionally, the main focus is on wage dynamics, which at 0.2% m / m and 3.1% y / y fall as expected. The unemployment rate, according to forecasts, remained at 3.7%. Apart from the confusion with employment, the rest of the report is not a source of surprises, hence the reasoned moderate reaction of the USD.
Let’s now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market felt out of the uprising channel after the new swing high was made at the level of 97.21. The impulsive wave down has completed at the level of 96.00 and since then the market is trying to continue the rally again. The better than expected data from the US job market has pushed the prices towards the level of technical resistance at 96.40. The oversold trading conditions support the short-term bullish bias, so the price might reach even the level of 96.87 before the bears will try to take the control over the market.