Global macro overview for 03/10/2018
The ADP report figures showed, that the private sector created 230,000 jobs in September. This is one of the highest results this year and higher readings than this appeared only in February or January (although then the report concerned December last year). The published value definitely beats forecasts of analysts who expected an increase of 185,000. Data for August were slightly revised upwards by 5,000 up to 168,000. The USD market does not react too much to data – USD / JPY gained 6 pips by 113.88. Investors approach the report with caution, as recently it was a weak forecast before the NFP report. A month ago, the government’s report pointed to an increase in employment by 204 thousand, or about 40 thousand. more than ADP indications. Secondly, the pace of employment has ceased to be a problem for the US economy and more attention is paid to the dynamics of wages.
Employment growth was higher than expected, despite the hurricane Florence, which passed over both Karolines in September. However, the ADP methodology influenced such a result, which does not take into account persons not working under a contract of employment.
Let’s now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market did not react violently to the news and the USD is appreciation a little as the pair is going down towards the technical support at the level of 1.1500. The market conditions are still oversold, so any pull-back above the technical resistance at the level of 1.1627 would be more than welcome. Nevertheless, the momentum remains weak and negative (below its fifty level), so instead of a dynamic spike up the market might just continue the slower horizontal drift.