Global macro overview for 05/07/2018
The beginning of the European session brings an appreciation of the euro, which is related to the increase in orders in German industry in May. Industrial orders increased by 2.6% on monthly basis against the expected increase by 0.1%. On an annual basis, the increase in orders amounted to 4.4% against the market consensus of 1.7%.
The European currency also caught its breath after the symptoms of the government crisis in Germany were solved. Angela Merkel provided the basis for further cooperation with the head of the CSU yesterday. Moreover, the valuation of the European currency may also be positively influenced by the recent financial media reports that some central bankers from the ECB do not feel comfortable with the price of money in the euro area priced by the market. Investors see the first rate hike by the ECB only in December 2019. In connection with the above, it is worth following the comments of bank members appearing this week in relation to monetary policy.
The US Dollar Index corrects the recent strong increases after it has been permanently failed to maintain above 95 points. Thursday’s session is important for the dollar due to published data. Today, we will learn about the ADP report on changes in employment in the private sector, where 190,000 new jobs are expected to increase. against an increase by 178,000 in May. Solid employment growth can be a good sign for tomorrow’s official report from the US Department of Labor. In addition, traders will learn the final reading of the ISM index for the US industry. In the evening, notes from the last FOMC meeting will be published, in which you should seek guidance on the speed of tightening monetary policy and the assessment of the effects of the trade war.
Let’s now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trading below the short-term dashed black trend line as it gets closer to the important support at the level of 94.18. A violation of this level would likely lead to the test of the longer-term golden trend line and even a drop towards the key technical support at the level of 93.21. Please notice the oversold market conditions that are indicating a temporary bounce from the current levels. The nearest intraday resistance is seen at the level of 94.46.