Global macro overview for 05/07/2018
Wednesday was treated as a mini weekend with an increased risk of extraordinary events, as a result of which on Tuesday investors focused on closing profitable positions while they still had a chance. As yesterday passed without surprises, today we return to the leitmotif of the last days, what are the trade wars and their impact on the global economy. The eyes of investors are primarily on China, where today the yuan’s performance was stable, but the stock market remained in bearish moods. The copper and iron ore also lost strength, which together shows that it is nervous. In this context, the stability of major currencies is impressive, although it may be the silence before the storm. The escalation of the commercial dispute is close because tomorrow the White House is to introduce a life of import duty including Chinese goods worth 34 billion USD. Donald Trump has promised to limit imports for goods worth $ 50 billion, so the risk by the end of the week is what the US intends to do with the remaining $ 16 billion. At the same time, China stipulated that “by no means” would not make the first move, but would not hesitate to respond to the actions of the United States. Personally, I have doubts whether the implementation of the tariffs will bring a market reaction in the style of “buy rumors, sell facts”. Taking into account that Trump will not like China’s retaliatory actions and will threaten with further tariffs, this may be a contribution to a further wave of risk aversion.
Let’s now take a look at the Gold technical picture in the daily time frame. After the Death Cross around the level of $1,310, the market has dropped towards the technical support at the level of $1,236. Due to the oversold market conditions, the price has bounced towards the level of $1,261 and currently, the bulls are still trying to rally higher, but the momentum remains below its fifty level. If the next wave down will occur, then the traders should closely watch the support at $1,236, because, in a case of a breakout, the next important support is seen at the level of $1,204.