Global macro overview for 05/10/2018
The Ivey Institute operating by Western University has published its own index of purchasing managers index (PMI) measuring the monthly change in business activity in Canada. Although analysts expected the index to rise to 62.3 from 61.9 previously, the September results of PMI Ivey turned out to be much worse and amounted to only 50.4. It is also the worst reading for over 2 years.
The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is provided in two formats: unadjusted and seasonally adjusted. It shows responses to one question: “Were your purchases last month in dollars higher, the same, or lower than the previous month?” A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease. The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index is often referred to as the Purchasing Managers Index, or PMI and is sponsored by the Richard Ivey School of Business and the Purchasing Management Association of Canada (PMAC). The PMI includes both the public and private sectors and is based on month-end data Ivey PMI panel members indicate whether their organization’s activity is higher than, the same as, or lower than the previous month across the following five categories: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices.
Let’s now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The depreciation of CAD is clear as the market rose towards the level of 1.2932, which is 50% of the previous swing down. Just above this Fibo level, there is technical resistance level as well, which makes this a tough resistance zone to break. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.12885 and the nearest resistance, in a case of the up move continuation, is seen at the level of 1.2973, just above the 61% Fibo at 1.2967.