Global macro overview for 09/08/2018
Trump’s administration has presented a list of further goods from China, which it intends to cover with customs duties this month. However, the new episode of trade wars does not bring about the reaction of the market, which is systematically immune to this type of information.
The newly announced $ 16 billion worth of commodities is complementing $ 34 billion, which was subject to customs duties on July 6. The new package is to be subject to sanctions from August 23, but generally, it is not new news and therefore the market passes by it indifferently. Especially that the data released today from Chinese trade suggest a limited influence of trade wars. Exports in July increased stronger than expected (12.2% y / y, 10% expected), although sales directly to the US weakened. A big surprise was the import dynamics (27.3% YoY, 16.5%), despite the fact that imports of agricultural commodities were regulated, as the reduction of tariffs for car imports worked better than offsetting. Therefore, the thesis is confirmed that trade wars are a threat primarily in the minds of investors, entrepreneurs, and consumers, and if hard data do not indicate a breakdown, the global economy should be doing well.
The currency market does not show a lot of life, and besides, that the USD by the occasional adjustment of position is weaker (although at a very slow pace), it is not visible that investors are interested in changing the current sentiment.
Let’s now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The good sentiment prevails as the market is trading very close the all-time highs around the level of 286.58. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 284.44, but the market is positioned to break out through all time highs and made a new one soon. Only if the level of 279.48 is clearly violated the change of trend will be visible. Strong momentum support the bullish bias.