Global macro overview for 16/07/2018
So far nobody wants to push the market too much in any direction, and most of the global investors prefer waiting for the development of events. Meeting two strong characters Trump and Putin can always generate interesting comments that will be reflected in the trade. In the afternoon we also have data on retail sales from the US for June, which should point to the fifth month of growth. The sale of cars will be boosted by the general indicator (0.5%), but the decline in fuel prices will worsen the results of gas stations. The consensus is tight, so it may be easier to be disappointed. Today, we will also be smarter about knowledge about the state of the manufacturing sector in July along with the publication of the NY Empire State indexes. The estimated decrease in relation to June takes into account concerns about the effects of trade conflicts, but it will be important how strong the sentiment will deteriorate. It must be remembered that the USD remains strong mainly on the contrast of the solidity of US economic activity against the rest of the world. Without it, the very prospect of further interest rate hikes by the Fed will not be enough. In this topic, in the next days, the Fed’s president in Congress and a report on the activities of the central bank will be in the foreground (Tues-Wed). The first hearing before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday will be more important because surprises are more likely here. On the other hand, it is widely expected that Jerome Powell will be constructively speaking about the state of the economy and confirmed market expectations for two more hikes this year. All of this hawkish comments will be bullish for the US Dollar.
Let’s then have a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market had made a clear Double Top pattern, but since then the most important support at the level of 93.21 hasn’t been visited yet. The bulls are trying to lift the prices higher, but so far no avail as the recent local top has been established at the level of 95.25 and the price has retraced 50% already. Moreover, there is still a battle for the golden trend line and so far the bears are winning it slightly as they had managed to break through it one time in the past. Any other violation of this line will likely make the potential sell-off more rapid and deeper.