Global macro overview for 16/07/2018
Silence in the subject of trade wars continues, therefore, risky assets have a moment to recover from the previous weakness. AUD and NZD are making up for losses, USD, JPY and CHF have become less sought after. EUR / USD is boring in a narrow range of fluctuations, and the pound remains Brexit-laden and changes, though they are, are chaotic in both directions.
Despite this, it is not everywhere rosy, especially not in China, which has recently become a determinant of sentiment. Exchange index in Shanghai lost 0.6%, and after the yuan, there is no sign of strengthening. At night we received a packet of data from the Middle Kingdom, which had its strengths and weaknesses. GDP in the second quarter increased in line with expectations by 6.7% y / y accompanied by better than expected June retail sales growth, but weaker growth in industrial production. The composition can be considered a comforting one, as it supports the government’s policy goal of improving the quality of growth with an increase in the share of consumption, and not only building new roads and bridges. On the other hand, in the entire first half of the year, the annualized growth was 6.4%, by 0.1 percentage point. less than envisaged in the plan for 2018. In the face of the risk of trade wars, it is difficult to expect an acceleration of growth in the second half of the year and the target of 6.5%. it may not be achieved. And China’s economic problems are always bad news for risk appetite.
If the risk appetite slows down, the global investors will likely fly to the safe-haven assets like Gold, so let’s now take a look at the Gold technical picture at the daily time frame. The market has made a Double Bottom formation at the level of $1,236, but there is still no impulsive reaction from the bulls. This level is very important from the longer timeframe point of view because in a case of a breakout lower, the next support is seen 30 dollars lower at $1, 204. If the flight to safe-haven actions will accelerate, the global investors will not see this level, so it is worth to keep an eye on the current market developments.