Global macro overview for 16/08/2018
Market equilibrium remains shaken, although the information that the US and China are planning a meeting on the subject of trade negotiations allows for a moment to forget about the negative sentiment due to the Turkish financial crisis. The Chinese delegation headed by Deputy Minister of Trade Wang will meet with an American group led by David Malpass, Undersecretary for International Affairs in the Treasury Department, informs the Chinese side. This is not a meeting of top officials but has raised the hope that talks may be the first step towards cooling emotions around trade wars between the two countries. How long will it be enough to calm the moods in the markets? Traders need to take into account, that in no way does this affect the diplomatic dispute of Turkey from the USA, where none of the parties, primarily Turkish, is letting go, so it will not be difficult to escalate further. For now, however, fast speculative capital is realizing profits after selling, among others EUR, AUD, gold, or oil. Nevertheless, the base scenario is still pessimistic for these assets until the breakthrough.
Let’s now take a look at the SP500 technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trading just below the all-time highs at the level of 286.77 and the technical support at the level of 279.48 is still in play. However, the market conditions are now overbought, so there is a chance of a deeper corrective pull-back. Please notice the unfilled gap between the levels of 275.85 – 276.50, that would be the first target for a downside correction.