Global macro overview for 23/07/2018
Trump criticizes raising the Fed’s interest rates on Thursday and on Friday he was concerned with a too strong dollar. This contributed to the weakening of the dollar, which can be interpreted in terms of limiting the bulls long exposure to the market. This is why the global investors will keep an eye on the macro data from the US this week, to see whether the solid pace of recovery continues, or will the global investors see the first signs of slowing down?
The reasons for worries may be weak dynamics of home sales (today and on Wednesday) or disappointing readings of activity indices in industry and services (to be released on Tuesday). The latter seems unlikely after the strong results of NY Empire State and Philly Fed. The key reading will be the preliminary GDP estimate for the second quarter and the preceding data on orders for durable goods (to be released on Thursday). Expectations are suspended high (GDP: 4.1%, prev. 2.0%), so disappointment will have more firepower.
Let’s now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame before the data are released. After the false breakout above the level of 95.66, the bears took control of the market and pushed the price towards the important support at the level of 94.29-94.17 support. Any violation of the level of 94.10 will result in another spike down towards the level of 93.71. Please notice, the golden trend line will be then clearly violated, so it will only reinforce the strength of the bears – worth to keep an eye on.