Global macro overview for 23/08/2018
The minutes of the July meeting of the ECB did not bring any surprises and generally confirm the position presented earlier. The members of the Governing Council are satisfied with the way the markets have received their communication about forward guidance from June (QE ended until December, interest rates unchanged at least until the end of the summer of 2019). Risks to the outlook for economic growth are assessed as balanced, despite the uncertainty surrounding global factors – mainly in the form of protectionism. The document also states that risks around inflation prospects are weakening.
Nevertheless, the head of the Bundesbank and a member of the Governing Council of the ECB, Jens Weidmann, reminds that he is one of the most hawkish monetary policymakers. In today’s speech he said that the time has come to move away from a very expansive policy, and the ending of QE is just the first step. The standardization process will continue slowly over the next years to avoid unnecessary delay. He added that the CPI forecast is 1.7% in 2020 and it coincides with the bank’s goals.
Let’s now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame after the news was released. The market is still trading around the level of 61% Fibo retracement at 1.1575 so no major breakout occured yet. The nearest support is located at the level of 1.1529 and the nearest resistance is seen at the level of 1.1630. Please notice, the market conditions are overgough and the momentum indicator is pointing south, so it looks like a short-term correction is on the way.