How the leaders of the US Central Bank see the prospects for raising interest rates
All the attention on Wednesday in the second half of the day will be focused on the protocols held on 31 July and 1 August meeting of the Federal reserve system, which will allow you to fully conclude on how the heads of the Central Bank of the United States see the prospects of higher interest rates in the second half of this year.
Let me remind you that at the last meeting the interest rate remained unchanged, in the range of 1.75% -2%, and the Fed made a statement that the U.S. economy remains strong.
A number of investors are counting on new signals from the Fed about the number of interest rate increases this year, as well as in the next year. The question of the neutral level of interest rates is the subject of discussion. Many experts agree that this range will be in the range from 2.50% to -2.75%. Thus, we can conclude that the Fed is expected to have at least three more increases before the normalization of monetary policy.
Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to decline against a number of risky assets after the news that former adviser to US President Donald Trump was found guilty of violating the laws on election financing. This seriously increases political uncertainty in the United States. Whether the White House’s political course will continue in the current direction is still unknown.
As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, then buyers coped with the task and pulled the pair under the large resistance levels of 1.1620 and 1.1660. As I noted, only their breakthrough, which can take place after the publication of the Fed’s protocols, will form a new upward wave in risky assets. If the pressure on the euro increases, support will be provided by the nearest support level of 1.1540 and 1.1490.
The Australian dollar fell against the US dollar after statements made today by the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Christopher Kent said that it is necessary to have more confidence that inflation will meet the target level, as it is not known how long the slowdown projected in the third quarter of this year will be. In his view, there remains some uncertainty regarding the indicator of the equilibrium unemployment rate, while the difference in interest rates of central banks now has less impact on foreign exchange markets.