The dollar may be cheaper by the end of the week
The US currency is trading at fairly strong levels, and it probably has no decent competitor among the Big Ten, with the exception of the Japanese yen. The euro bears a lot of problems in the form of political risks, weak economic growth, and inflation. Therefore, as long as the euro / dollar rate does not exceed 1.143 and 1.15, the bears will continue to control the main pair.
In the first half of this week, the dollar is likely to continue to hold strong positions, aided by a number of technical factors.
On Monday, October 29, is the last day when companies can repatriate profits to the States in October. After Trump’s tax reform took effect this year, this factor constantly supports the US currency two working days before the end of the month. The demand for dollars at this time rises substantially.
In addition, on Wednesday, the next reduction of the balance of the Central Bank of the USA is expected. On state bonds, the maturity date is $ 22.9 billion. In other words, the Ministry of Finance will return the appropriate amount to the Fed, which will not be reinvested in new assets. There will be a decrease in the volume of dollar liquidity in the system, at least this was the case in previous months. On such days, the dollar has always appreciated.
In the second half of the week, the US currency may lose some potential for growth due to the expected important macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone. October inflation in the region, according to market forecasts, will accelerate to 1.2% y/y after September’s 0.9%. The highest rate of inflation is always supported by euro quotes, as investors’ expectations of rising interest rates in Europe increase.
The market can be disappointed by a leading indicator of economic activity ISM, which is likely to shrink after the tightening of financial conditions in America. Release publication is scheduled for Thursday.
In this scenario, in the first part of this week, the US dollar will be in high spirits under the influence of technical factors. Then a turn in favor of the euro currency is possible.