The review of the foreign exchange market as of September 19, 2018
Mario Draghi’s speech, of course, did not frighten the market participants even more, but also did not dispel fears that aroused after the ECB’s meeting on the monetary policy. The head of the ECB did not give an explanation of what is meant by favorable conditions, the fulfillment of which is the guarantee of curtailing the activities of the quantitative easing program. So, there are still risks of another extension of the quantitative easing program. However, in addition to the speech of the head of the ECB, there were no other events yesterday, and since the situation did not clear up, the situation on the market remained unchanged.
Today, Mario Draghi will once again keep his promise, but after yesterday’s speech, one should not expect any new introductory words. However, unlike yesterday, there are a number of statistical data that will affect the mood of market participants today. In particular, in Europe, the growth of the construction industry is forecast to slow from 2.6% to 1.7%, which does not bode well for the industry as a whole. In the UK, inflation is expected to slow from 2.5% to 2.4%, and given the extremely muffled outcome of the recent meeting of the Bank of England’s board, investors are clearly negatively reacting to this news. After all, this means that in the near future, one should not expect any sharp steps from the English regulator. But in the US, quite good statistics are expected. Although the number of building permits should be reduced by 1,000, from 1,311 thousand to 1,310 thousand, the number of construction projects may increase by as much as 67 thousand, from 1,168 thousand to 1,235 thousand. If these forecasts are justified, then there is a hope that housing sales will begin to recover after a prolonged recession.
Thus, we should expect a gradual decline in the single European currency to 1.1650.
The pound will also have to give up its positions, and it is most likely that it will have to fall to 1.3100.