Trading plan for 02/10/2018
The session in Asia was unchanged with the help of a holiday in China and India. The RBA’s decision did not bring any surprises. In general, the dollar is strengthening against pressure on risky currencies due to disturbing comments from Italy.
Just before the start of trading in Europe, the sale of risk currencies is intensifying. The above-mentioned AUD / USD fell under 0.72, NZD / USD goes down at 0.66, they lose stronger NOK and SEK.
EUR / USD fell to 1.1540 after a comment by Claudio Borghi. Eurosceptic head of the Italian budget committee said that Italy would deal with budget problems if they had their own currency. At that time, the country could decide on a deficit of 3.1 percent.
On the stock market, the Japanese Nikkei225 is slightly below the line.
Rising oil prices are not slowing down and WTI is now gaining 0.6 % up to 75.6 USD / b, while Brent increases by 0.1% a little over 85 USD / b. The prospect of supply disruption by the sanctions imposed on Iran is pulling up prices, and indirectly the trilateral US / Mexico / Canada trade agreement also indirectly helps.
On Tuesday, the 2nd of October, the most important event will be the speech of Fed chairman, J. Powell, on the prospects of employment and inflation in the US. Less important will be the speeches of Quarles and Kaplan from the Fed, Ohlsson from Riksbank, Haldane from BoE and Villeroy from the ECB. During the day, PPI inflation readings are expected in the euro area, PMI for the construction sector in the UK and Hungary’s foreign trade balance.
AUD/USD analysis for 02/10/2018:
The Reserve Bank of Australia has left the cash rate at 1.50% as expected. The message leaves the current language describing the economy with forecasts of GDP growth above 3%. in 2018 and 2019. Consumer spending remains a source of uncertainty due to the high level of indebtedness with weak wage growth. The RBA also changed the inflation forecast in 2018 from 1.75%. up to 1.50% due to one-off price depressing factors in the third quarter of AUD / USD was stable after the decision at 0.7230.
Let’s now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has spiked down from the horizontal consolidation zone and currently is testing the technical support at the level of 0.7195. Nevertheless, this might not be the end of the down move, so the nearest technical supports are seen at the levels of 0.7187, 0.7165 and 0.7157. Negative and weak momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook.