Trading plan for 02/11/2018
On Friday, the 2nd of November, the event of the day will be the US job market report in form of NFP-Payrolls data and Unemployment Rate data. Moreover, the global investors should keep an eye on PMI Manufacturing data from Germany, France and the rest of the Eurozone, the Construction PMI data from the UK and the data from Canada: Unemployment Change, Employment Rate and Trade Balance.
EUR/USD analysis for 02/11/2018:
One of the most widely anticipated reports on the US economic calendar, the Employment Situation is a timely report that gives a picture of job creation, loss, wages and working hours in the United States. Data in the report relies on the Household Survey and the Establishment (or Payroll) Survey. While the Household Survey is based on the interviews to US households, the Establishment Survey queries business establishments, making it the preferred source of data. Employment Situations has many significant figures such as Change in Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment, Manufacturing Payrolls, and Average Hourly Earnings. Monthly change in employment excluding the farming sector is the most closely watched indicator in the Employment Situation, considered the most comprehensive measure of job creation in the US. Such a distinction makes the NFP figure highly significant, given the importance of labor to the US economy. Specifically, political pressures come into play, as the Fed is responsible for keeping employment in a healthy range and utilizes interest rate changes to do so. A surge in new Non-farm Payrolls suggests rising employment and potential inflation pressures, which the Fed often counters with rate increases. On the other hand, a consistent decline in Non-farm Employment suggests a slowing economy, which makes a decline in rates more likely.
For the month of October, market participants expect an increase from 131k to 191k and the Unemployment rate decrease from 3.7% to 3.8%.
Let’s now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the level of 1.299 and the bounce was so strong, that the price has broken out of the descending channel and is currently testing the level of 1.1432 – 1.1444. In a case of a further move up, the next target is seen at the level of 1.1497 or even at 1.1533. The strong and positive momentum in neutral market conditions supports the short-term bullish outlook.