Trading plan for 04/07/2018
A better than expected Chinese PMI services data and the second day of strengthening of CNY help stabilize sentiment and halt USD appreciation. In such an environment, AUD and NZD perform best. The dollar is losing to other major currencies, but the movement is in most cases minimal. EUR/USD increases to 1.1670. GBP/USD returns above 1.32. USD/JPY moves back to 110.50. Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng record today about 1.0% drop and Nikkei 225 is down 0.25% Futures on the SP500 are up to 2720 points. The WTI barrel is valued at around USD 74.5, an ounce of gold costs USD 1260.
On Wednesday 4th of July, the event calendar is very light in important data releases. Only PMI Services data from Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK are worth to keep an eye on. None of the forecasted values have been different from last month. The USA is celebrating the Independence Day, so the market will be closed.
GBP/USD analysis for 04/07/2018:
At the end of the week, the key meeting of Prime Minister May with ministers is scheduled to arrange the so-called “white paper” on Brexit, or a set of specific solutions that will be presented to the European Union negotiators. Last week, the head of the British government was criticized by the participants of the EU summit for sluggishness in negotiations, as a result of fears that it will be possible to finish the details by the end of October, when the so-called deadline expires. Otherwise, there is a risk of so-called unordered Brexit in March 2019, which would have fatal consequences for the economy. However, the more political scuffles will be prolonged, the more the pressure from large companies to limit investments in the UK will be visible now due to unclear operating conditions after March 2019. The key issue is the access of the UK to the EU market, especially the status of Northern Ireland. Previous proposals have been rejected by the EU, and in addition, May has strong factions in his own party, which either strive for hard Brexit or want to be quite pro-EU.
The key to the pound is, of course, the expectations related to the rate hike at the beginning of August by Bank of England, which is currently priced at over 60%. The last PMI Manufacturing and PMI Construction data were not that bad, and today the global investors will know the PMI Services data as well. The expectations are in line with the previous month’s figures of 54.0 points.
Let’s now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls are testing the bear’s patience as the price is now trading around the technical resistance zone between the levels of 1.3191 – 1.3217. Better than expected data will likely help to trigger another wave of an upward move towards the level of 1.3292. The positive momentum and market conditions are supporting the short-term bullish bias. The key technical support is seen at the level of 1.3100 and 1.3049.