Trading plan for 06/07/2018
US duties for Chinese products worth 34 billion USD have come into force, but this does not create any volatility. The Asian session is dominated by a minimum 20-25 pips ranges of changes in the main currency pairs. EUR/USD remains under resistance at 1.1730. GBP/USD after yesterday’s rise to 1.3270 has receded to 1.32 and remains slightly above this barrier. USD/JPY moves in the range 110.50-75. AUD/USD is close to 0.74.
The minutes from the FOMC meeting published yesterday in the evening did not contain surprising statements. Finally, the monetary policy outlook has been clearly explained. Wall Street rises from 0.75-1.25%. Similar moods in Asia, where Nikkei leads the top 225 (1.2%). Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng are growing 0.7%. Oil remains weak after a surprising increase in inventories. WTI will open the way for stronger declines ending the day at $ 62.80 a barrel. An ounce of gold is valued at 1255 USD. US 10Y yield is currently at 2.85%.
On Friday, 6th of July, the main event of the day is the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Change in Private Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings and Participation Rate data. The other important data will be released from Canada in form of Unemployment Rate, Employment Change, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index and Trade Balance figures.
USD/CAD analysis for 06/07/2018:
Market participants do not expect a significant change in Canadian job report. The Unemployment Rate (the percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy) is expected to remain stable at 5.8%, the Employment Change data (tracks the number of the employed in the country. A surge in new employment suggests higher spending potential and budding inflation pressures) should increase from -7.5k to 22.3k this month and Participation Rate should increase slightly from 65.3% to 65.4%. The Canadian job market should remain stable and all figures should be released inside of the tolerance brackets, so no alarms and no surprises are expected here.
Let’s now take a look at the USD/CAD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is resting in a tight consolidation around the level of 1.3126 in deeply oversold conditions. The momentum is still below its fifty level, so it supports the bearish outlook. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3166 and then at 1.3259. The nearest technical support is seen at 1.3066. In a case of a significantly better than expected data (lower unemployment rate, lower participation rate), the price should drop towards this support or even move lower towards the level of 1.3045 and 1.3000. Otherwise, the market should remain within the range.