Trading plan for 06/09/2018
Thursday is the yet another day when AUD increases are put out as the rest of the currency market is watching the mix of buying and selling USD. The stock market remains in the red. Oil is losing concerns about demand from emerging markets. On the rest of the market, we saw attempts to sell USD, but the effect was short-lived. EUR / USD approached 1.1660 and USD / JPY fell to 111.20, but at the start of trade in Europe, the rates returned to 1.1620 and 111.30 respectively.
From Germany, the global investors received poor data on industrial orders – in July orders fell by 0.9% m / m, while it was expected to increase by 1.8%. In annual terms, orders slept 0.9% – this is the first drop since July 2016.
The downward trend continues in the stock market, as investors still can not get rid of the unrest related to trade disputes and the situation in emerging economies. The Japanese Nikkei is losing 0.4%today, and the Chinese Shanghai Composite is down 0.4%.
On Thursday, the 6th of September, the event calendar quite rich in macroeconomic publications. During the European session, there will not be much going on, but in the afternoon we expect a series of data from across the ocean. The most important will be the publication of the change in non-agricultural employment of ADP. The other important data from the US scheduled for release are ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Composite PM, Unemployment Claims and Crude Oil inventories data.
AUD/USD analysis for 06/09/2018:
In Australia, more commercial banks raise mortgage rates – this time ANZ and Commonwealth Bank. The decision is not a surprise after last week’s Westpac move, but information is a reminder that the pressure on the RBA is dropping to change attitudes. AUD / USD reacted with a decline from 0.72 to 0.7170 – the rate returns from this ceiling for the third day in a row.
Let’s now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market tried to break through the blue trend line, but it failed and the breakout looks fake. The price returned to the level of support at 0.7165 and currently is trading around this level. The next support is seen at the level of 0.7157 and in a case of a sell-off extension – 0.7144. Please notice, the market conditions are quite overbought and the momentum is still negative and pointing to the downside. This might suggest the short-term downward bias is being supported.