Trading plan for 07/08/2018
After a sleepy Monday, low volatility remained a topic also during Asian trade. The only night’s event was the decision of the RBA, which, however, did not surprise at all. The stock market is picking up bullish, oil and gold are slightly bouncing.
EUR / USD stopped at 1.1550, GBP / USD wants, but it can not go back over 1.2950, and USD / JPY drifts at 111.30.
The Asian stock market is backing up with the help of solid financial results from Wall Street companies that helped that market and set the direction for investors from China and Japan. Shanghai Composite is growing 1.6% today and Japanese Nikkei225 gaining 0.6%.
On Tuesday the 7th of August, the event calendar is light in important data releases during the London and US session, but the market participants should keep an eye on Trade Balance and Industrial Production data from Germany, Halifax House Price Index data from the UK, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index data from Canada and JOLTs Job Openings data from the US.
AUD/USD analysis for 07/08/2018:
The Reserve Bank of Australia decides to keep the interest rate unchanged at the level of 1.50 as expected.
The statement published together with them was more interesting. GDP in this and next year is expected to increase slightly above 3%. The policy of low-interest rates positively affects the economy of the country. No change is in line with the current market situation. We will be able to talk about the hike only when inflation reaches the assumed target.
Inflation forecasts for the next two years speak of a gradual rise in prices. The reason for concern is the low wage growth, this situation on the labor market may persist for some time. Although inflation is rising, the year may end at a lower level than expected at the end of 2017.
Real estate prices slowed down in Sydney and Melbourne. Strengthening banking regulations allowed to control the risks associated with the real estate market. Household consumption remains a source of uncertainty. The Australian dollar is in the same range as in the last few years.
Let’s now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is currently trading at the technical resistance at the level of 0.7414 and it looks like this resistance will be violated. The next target for bulls is seen at the level of 0.7440 – 0.7445. The momentum is above its fifty level and points to the north, together with the stochastic oscillator, so the upward bias remains intact. Please keep an eye on the golden trend line resistance around the level of 0.74500.