Trading plan for 08/08/2018
Trade in Asia was taking place in the presence of negative information about trade wars, although there is no major market reaction. USD remains weak after Tuesday. Data from China showed a jump in imports.
The stock market is in mixed moods. Late Tuesday evening, the US administration published a list of 16 billion USD worth of Chinese products that will be subject to a 25% duty. The duties will take effect from August 23. This is the second tranche of duties after the earlier imposition of customs duties worth 34 billion USD, which have been in force since 6 July. The market reaction is very limited – USD / CNY is basically unchanged from Tuesday’s levels (6.8285). Data from Chinese foreign trade for July showed a clear contraction of the surplus by the jump in imports. The surplus amounted to US$28.05 billion (threshold: US$ 38.9 billion) compared to US$ 41.5 billion in June. Imports increased by 27.3% against a 16.5% forecast, but exports only increased by 12.2% versus 10% expected.
On Wednesday, the 8th of August, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on Canadian Building Permits data, Crude Oil Inventories data from the US and the event of the day: RBNZ Official Cash Rate and Monetary Statement late in the night.
NZD/USD analysis for 08/08/2018:
NZD is the strongest on Wednesday with NZD / USD approaching 0.6760. Two-year inflation expectations in the third quarter have risen to 2.04% from 2.01%. This is a small change, but it allows for some optimism before the RBNZ decision tonight. The RBNZ should leave the interest rates unchanged at the level of 1.75%, but the most important will be the statement tone and expectations regarding the New Zealand economy in times of trade wars.
Let’s now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market remains locked in a horizontal consolidation between the levels of 0.6765 – 0.6721 and only an impulsive breakout out of this zone would give traders more clues whether the downtrend will be continued or not. The market conditions are now close to the neutral and the momentum is neutral as well – typical summer market conditions.