Trading plan for 09/07/2018
The investment climate on Monday is good, and the Asian stock market continues to pick up on Europe and the US after the US labor market data on Friday pointed to a positive trend. Japanese Nikkei225 grows by 1.2% and Chinese Shanghai Composite gains 1.7%.
In the currency market, USD is in defensive to other major currencies after the first salvo in the US-China trade war has not fueled investors’ fears. Risk appetite is supported by AUD, NZD, SEK and NOK. EUR / USD remains high at 1.1765; USD / JPY, despite several attempts, cannot break above 110.50.
The USD weakness helps in the growth of raw materials. Gold gains 0.4% up to 1260 USD, WTI crude oil grows 0.5% up to 74.1 USD, and copper is increased by 1.6% up to 287 USD.
On Monday, the 9th of July, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but there are some speeches scheduled. First will speak BOE Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent, then ECB President Mario Draghi. Worth to keep an eye on them as the volatility might increase during the time of speech.
GBP/USD analysis for 09/07/2018:
The pound tolerates the turbulence on the British political scene quite well. On Friday after long talks, Prime Minister May agreed in the government a consensus on Brexit’s proposal to present the EU. The solution was not well received by everyone, because on Sunday three of the five ministers responsible for conducting Brexit negotiations resigned. In the letter of resignation, the chief talks coordinator David Davis wrote that the current political trend and adopted tactics are making it less and less likely that the United Kingdom will leave the customs union and the single European market.
Let’s now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. GBP/USD temporarily retreated to 1.3280, but it is back over 1.33. Currently, the local high was set at the level of 1.3350, just where the technical resistance lies. The momentum is strong and positive and with the help of any good news or data, the bulls have a chance to rally towards the level of 1.3439. The nearest support is seen at the level of 1.3314 – 1.3306 zone. Short term bias remains bullish.