Trading plan for 09/08/2018
The dovish overtone of the RBNZ statement is the most interesting element of night trade. NZD is the biggest loser between the majors with the stability of the rest of the cross. Data on inflation from China fell above forecasts.
USD / JPY initially raised to 110.70 but managed to make up for declines and return to 111. AUD / USD is slightly higher at 0.7440 under the pressure of demand passing through AUD / NZD. EUR / USD is sitting at 1.1610.
Inflation in China in July surprised in a positive 0.1 pp. PPI amounted to 4.6% and CPI to 2.1%. These may be the seeds of inflationary pressures, which are positive for the economy, although USD / CNH first grew after data to 6.84, finally to calm down at 6.82, close to the reference level from Wednesday. Chinese Shanghai Composite is growing today by 2.0%on speculation about government support for technology companies. Hopes for strengthening infrastructural expenditures that would support industrial companies are also growing.Japanese Nikkei 225 loses 0.1% after a surprising slump in June machine orders (-8.8% m / m versus expected -1.0%).
On Thursday, the 9th of August, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the market participants should keep an eye on Unemployment Rate data from Switzerland, Housing starts and New Housing Price Index data from Canada and PPI data from the US.
EUR/USD analysis for 09/08/2018:
Let’s now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has bounced from the support at the level of 1.1530 and now is testing the golden trend line from below around the level of 1.1620. Nevertheless, the momentum remains close to the neutral levels and the market conditions are now close to becoming overbought as well. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of .11627 and only if this level is violated, then the price might rally higher towards the level of 1.1719. The last support for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1774.