Trading plan for 09/10/2018
On Tuesday there is no improvement in market sentiment, but the situation is not deteriorating. After a long weekend, Japan and Nikkei225 are coming back, but in Shanghai the stock exchange is stable. The fluctuations in the currency market are minimal.
USD / JPY is just over 113 after descending to 112.80 at night. Nikkei225, which opened after a long weekend, today fell 1.2%, which added fuel for bearish moods. Earlier, no good signals were sent to Wall Street, where Nasdaq scored 0.6%, and the S & P500 lost 0.04%.
The currency market was generally stable, which means the USD rally was stopped. EUR / USD is sitting at 1.15, GBP / USD – at 1.31. AUD / USD climbed to 0.7080. There was no reaction in the publication of NAB indices. The business conditions indicator increased to 15 out of 14 (after correction), and the confidence index increased to 6 out of 5. Crude oil WTI grows 0.5%. up to 74.6 USD / b supported by information about a fire in the largest refinery in Canada – Saint John. The refinery processes 300,000 barrels a day.
On Tuesday, the 9th of October, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on German Trade Balance data and Canadian Housing Starts data. There are some spechees scheduled for today from BOE Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent and BOC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins.
NZD/USD analysis for 09/10/2018:
The ANZ Monthly Inflation Gauge of New Zealand economy rose 0.3% m/m in September (2.9% y/y). On a quarterly basis, the Gauge rose 1.4% in Q3. There is some noise in the quarterly movement, such as payback from a weak Q2 signal and new-look accommodation services. Aside from this, seasonal price rises and ongoing housing-related price pressures are keeping the Gauge ticking along.
Let’s now take a look at the NZD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still in the downtrend as the price keeps making new lower lows. The recent high was made at the level of 0.6468, but the bears have pushed the price down quickly from this level. Currently, the price is approaching the technical support at the level of 0.6421 and if this support is violated, then another support can be seen at the weekly timeframe, at the level of 0.6346. Please notice, that the market conditions are now extremly oversold, so a short-term pullback can occur any time soon.