Trading plan for 11/09/2018
On the currency market, the JPY is losing to USD just above 111.40 level after the reports that the Japanese processor manufacturer Renesas intends to buy for USD 6.7 billion competitors from the US IDT (potential demand for USD / JPY).
Among other currencies, the strongest was GBP, which is all the time supported by positive information about Brexit. European Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said yesterday to journalists that the agreement with the UK is “realistic” within 6-8 weeks.
The NAB business mood index from Australia in September fell to 4 from 7 months earlier. The sentiment index increased to 15 from 12. Mixed data turned out to be neutral for the currency and AUD/USD remained stable at just above 0.71.
The Japanese Nikkei225 stands out on the stock market, growing by 1.2%, following USD/JPY. In emerging markets, investors are struggling to break the series of eight succession sessions and put aside fears of escalating trade wars. Chinese Shanghai Composite is at the level of Monday closing.
On the commodity market, gold drifts close to 11195 USD/oz and WTI is stable at USD 67.6/b.
On Tuesday, the 11th of September, the event calendar will be busy only during the London session, because there are ZEW Economic Sentiment data from Germany and Eurozone scheduled for releases in the morning, together with Claimant Count Change data from the UK. During the US session, there are NFIB Small Business Index data from the US to be released and Housing Starts data to be released from Canada.
EUR/USD analysis for 11/09/2018:
The data from Germany and the rest of the Eurozone in form of ZEW Economic sentiment will be released at 09:00 am GMT. A German Firm, the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), queries financial experts throughout Europe every month in order to make a medium-term forecast about Germany ‘s economic situation. They ask experts to evaluate the current situation and to predict the future direction of the economy. For all components of the survey, responses are restricted to positive, negative, or unchanged. This simple structure allows the survey to be quick and efficient in terms of turnaround time, as well as easy to understand and interpret. Experts are asked for a qualitative assessment of the direction of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates and the stock market in the next six months. Thus the indicator provides a medium-term forecast for the German economy.
Let’s now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still trading inside of the black channel and currently, the bulls are trying to challenge the technical resistance at the level of 1.1627. In a case of a bullish breakout, the next target is seen at the level of 1.1655 and a better than expected ZEW data might be a fundamental trigger. Please notice, the momentum remains neutral to positive and now is pointing to the upside which supports the short-term bullish bias.