Trading plan for 13/09/2018
Finally, an interesting European session is ahead of traders. Important macroeconomic publications from the Eurozone will appear in the morning, emphasis will be placed on inflation data. However, they should not move the market much, because the decisions of central banks will be much more important: first at 01:00 PM Bank of England, and shortly thereafter – at 01:45 PM – the European Central Bank. It is worth watching the behavior of the pound and the euro today.
Analysts are wondering whether today the global investors will finally get to know some details about the QE ending plan. Interesting will also be the forecasts of individual economic indicators. Some economists expect a slight reduction in expected GDP growth for 2018 and 2019. Generally, however, the language of the published statement should be positive. The ECB will rather remain certain as to the action of the policy and the increase in inflation. The Bank will slowly be preparing markets to change the current policy and start tightening it. The next rate hike should take place in the second half of next year, and all major institutions agree. At 02:30 PM a question and answer session will take place with the ECB president Mario Draghi. Then maybe more issues regarding the monetary policy of the Bank will be clarified.
Although Brexit’s negotiations are the hottest topic in Britain, it is worth focusing on the moves of the Bank of England today. Although the markets do not expect changes in interest rates, there may still be more volatility at the pound. GBPUSD has been steadily growing for more than a week, the pair managed to return above the round level of 1.30. Due to the period, that the BoE Governonor Mark Carney referred to as the “critical time” for Brexit negotiations, it is unlikely that the Bank’s meeting would bring about any changes in the monetary policy or guidelines. The global investors expect the key message of a “gradual and limited” interest rate increase in the coming years to remain valid, but as noted at the last meeting, the outcome of negotiations with the EU is now a key impact on the institution’s ability to comply with these guidelines.
EUR/USD analysis for 13/09/2018:
Let’s now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pair moved flat all night, but the traders should expect more movements around the announcement of decisions. So far, there is a wall of the resistance levels between 1.1655 – 1.1617 and a tight zone of a technical support at the levels of 1.1525 – 1.1520. The market will likely be moving inside of this zone if Draghi will not tell anything new. Nevertheless, any information that will be treated as a new for the market participants might trigger the spike higher, above the wall of resistance, towards the level of 1.1746.