Trading plan for 20/08/2018
Today’s session should be rather calm because apart from the publication of the PPI index in Germany, the global investors will not get any important macroeconomic data. In the calendar, however, we will find scheduled speeches by several central bankers, but no president, so markets will hardly attach much importance to them. Nevertheless, speeches will come from BOC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins, FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic, and ECB’s Jens Weidmann. The latter gave an interview at the weekend for the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung. In his opinion, the time of normalization of monetary policy is slowly coming. This process will be gradual and will probably last several years. He also spoke about Turkey. In his opinion, the current crisis has little impact on German banks. This is an example that the resilience of financial systems to local shocks has increased. Turkey is only in 16th place among German trading partners, and this country is responsible only for 1% of the global economy.
USD/TRY analysis for 20/08/2018:
Last week was marked by consolidation on currency markets. Both the yen and the dollar lost their growth momentum. Also, the Turkish lira is no longer important for investors. After declines from last Monday, the USDTRY price fell slightly and stabilized at around 6.00. The fear of additional sanctions on the part of the US still exists, which can be seen after the downgrade of ratings by major agencies.
The question of a trade war between the United States and China came to the fore. The parties agreed to resume negotiations. Deputy Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen will meet with Secretary of International Relations David Malpas in Washington. Markets do not expect too much after these talks. First of all, both politicians do not have enough power to make any binding decisions. What’s more, Malpass is on the side of Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who has recently been isolated from the issue of trade with China.
Let’s now take a look at the USD/TRY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price dropped towards the level of 5.43, but so far did not reach it and made a local low at the level of 5.68. The technical resistance at the level of 6.41 will now cap all the rallies to the upside, so it is an important level to keep the eyes on. The market conditions are now oversold, but the momentum remains neutral. As long as the price remains below the blue internal trend line, the bias is continuing to be bearish as the pull-back continues.