Trading plan for July 24, 2018
Politics, of course, has an impact on markets, but only for a short time. That’s exactly what happened with the criticism of the Fed from Donald Trump. The words of the US president about the fact that the Fed is not clear why, instead of helping to make America great again, led to a serious weakening of the dollar. However, after the passions subsided, many realized that further this Donald Trump can not go, because he simply does not have the authority to do so. So besides the verbal attacks of the owner of the White House, there are no other ways to influence the Fed. So during yesterday, the dollar was restoring its positions, which completely fits into the traditional formula “Monday vs. Friday”. Apparently, the panic that covered market participants at the end of last week was so emotional that investors overdid with the sale of the dollar, and yesterday nothing could stop its strengthening. Even the decline in home sales in the secondary market, which declined by 0.6%.
Today, we are waiting for preliminary data on the index of business activity in Europe, which are expected not the most joyful. So, the index of business activity in the service sector should decrease from 55.2 to 55.0, and the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from 54.9 to 54.6. As a consequence, the composite index of business activity may fall from 54.9 to 54.8. But in the US, similar data can show the invariability of business activity indices. True, such a discrepancy between European and American data will not help the dollar slightly, since US statistics differ in that factual data often differ from preliminary data. And for the worse.
The euro / dollar currency pair, after a sharp Friday recovery, found a resistance point in the face of the periodic-range level of 1,1720 / 1,1750, where it managed to restore its downward positions. Probably assume a further slight understatement to the levels of 1,1660-1,1650, where temporary stagnation is possible.
The currency pair pound / dollar after the formation of the correction found a resistance point in the face of a periodic value of 1.3150. It is possible to assume a further decline to 1.3060-1.3050, where temporary stagnation is possible.